We’re just a few months away from the end of another year… And it’s starting to feel like March 2020 again.
There’s doom and gloom in all the universes I watch so closely. Politics, economics, the environment, social issues, Covid, stocks, crypto, writing, entertainment… It’s hard to feel at peace when the whole world feels on edge.
But doom and gloom is generally a good thing for anyone who isn’t eighty years old. Every doom has led to a boom and every boom has resulted in gloom.
During every significant challenge, mankind has risen to beat it. And we’re still here. During every rise, opportunity rears its beautiful head and we get to watch the phoenix ascend from the ashes.
Are we perfect? No. But we’re still here.
Nothing is guaranteed. But that just makes me more hopeful, not less so.
Because often, shit hits the fan when we think something is guaranteed.
Comfort kills.
So if you can, embrace the doom and gloom. A boom is always nearby.
I’m Not A Zealot
I own 4 cryptocurrencies. The principal I invested into these cryptos comes out to less than 1/5th of my personally managed investment portfolio.
BTC - through the ownership of GBTC. I bought these when I first discovered crypto but didn’t want to manage a wallet, or make another account… I believe that if BTC sucks, all of crypto sucks. My goal here is to gradually flip out of GBTC and just own that amount as BTC in a wallet.
ETH - through the crypto “bank” of BlockFi. I bought these when I first realized that the APY return was so sexy in comparison to keeping cash. I believe ETH is the one type of crypto I could actually use in the future. My goal here is to track the value of ETH so I can easily use it when my need for utility appears.
ALGO & ADA - through the exchange platform of Coinbase. These were bought on technicals. I believe that these seem to be the less fishy “up & comers” that have the promise of utility and sexy APY returns. My goal here is to thoughtfully speculate with nominal amounts of money.
I’ve already written them all off as losers in my head. This helps me sleep at night.
Note: I am DCA-ing only one of these currently, and that’s ETH.
I personally bet that crypto falls apart spectacularly at some point in the near future.
Of these 4 cryptocurrencies, I think ETH has the most promise for my future use case but it’s far from perfect. The infrastructure has been plagued by many things in the past and the energy demand is particularly scary (but that kinda goes for all crypto).
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We’ve front-loaded the demand on relatively useless and shitty things like we’ve done time and time again (see Dot Com bubble, housing bubble, gold rush…), but I also believe that there’s magic within the Blockchain that no one has even realized yet.
It’s that magic that I am trying to understand and tap into.
If in 1999 you had predicted that 20 years in the future nearly the entire global white collar work force would pivot on a moment’s notice to working from home on the back of a robust global internet, you would have been seen as a starry-eyed optimist even by the Henry Blodgets’ of the world. Predicting the rise of 7 billion internet connected devices with people from every walk of life carrying an internet connected supercomputer in their pocket at all times would have made even the Dot Com uber bulls blush at your optimism.
As you know, I am an optimist and I guarantee that I am not seeing all of the promises of the crypto future. But these zealots don’t know either.
So for anyone who’s spinning you a specific future of crypto and then you see that crazy glint in their eyes… Be careful.
The Value of Volatility
One of the best (and worst) things about crypto right now is that it’s volatile.
When traditional savings and investment strategies don’t provide the desired returns, people will speculate into more and more obtuse “asset” classes. (Calling some of these things assets is up for debate.)
These speculations then result in more and more insane returns until the bubble bursts.
Then the ensuing calamity of a bursting bubble drives people to sell and to retreat to safety.
Participating in ONE component of the volatility cycle is the mistake most short-term traders make.
The goal is to participate throughout the entire cycle.
That’s when it pays to have volatility. When you have no time horizon except the never reachable FUTURE.
Spotlight: The Whippet Substack
I read lots of things, some of you know this well since I send you the best of what I consume every week. (If you want in on this, just hit me up and I’ll add you to the Download List. I have some spots open still.)
Sometimes there are just golden nuggets and sometimes there are gold mines.
With Spotlight, we’ll dig into the gold mines if you're looking for more of the good stuff.
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This week’s spotlight is about a Substack writer who’s much better than me.
I’ve been reading some of their posts but I finally decided to make it official and fill up my already overflowing inbox with this wonderful newsletter.
Here’s the latest from McKinley Valentine, AKA Whippet:
My Thoughts:
McKinley is right on the money here.
Actually, I think there’s an even more significant reason why you’d never be a BTC rich biatch beyond the fact that HODL is really hard to do emotionally and realistically… and it’s because the opportunity to get into crypto early was such a privileged game to begin with.
Crypto has been an exclusive club that only attracted the following types of people:
Silicon Valley types
Already rich bitches
Criminals and vagabonds
Hustlers
We seem to think about the past as if it had all of the advancements we take for granted today. We immediately look at the past by removing all of the annoying shit of today and projecting everything else as it exists now, to our imagined version of back then.
Do you remember how hard it was to even Google something a decade ago? Do you know what it was like before people had cell phones and GPS devices in their pockets wherever they went? Did you know that creating a business even 3 years ago required a robust physical office to even have a chance to work?
Crypto IS STILL SO HARD to get into. I’m not an idiot and it exhausts me to just dabble and try to learn about it today (and it’s never been easier).
So drop the FOMO and instead focus on developing an allowance of serendipity in your life where you get yourself into the rooms where opportunities appear.
If I’m doing my job right, this should be one of those rooms…
If not, go find McKinley’s substack and join that room.
Check them out and subscribe:
And maybe don’t leave me. You can be in multiple rooms at once…
Quick Thoughts & Quotes
“Companies are better at being companies nowadays compared to 100 years ago.” - Josh Brown
“While everyone has FOMO about missing the next Solana and everyone thinks cash is trash (it mostly is if you have a long enough time horizon), have a plan.” - Howard Lindzon
“Inertia is one of the most dangerous things in our daily lives.” - Unknown
“You are GOING to lose money. If you’re going to take risks, you’re going to lose money… There are 3 rules to investing: Liquidity, Leverage, and Concentration. If you’re in illiquid stuff, if you’re over levered, and/or if you’re too concentrated, that’s a problem.” - Steve Cohen
“Be greedy when others are fearful.” - Warren Buffett